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House price drop: Opinion divided

House price drop: Opinion divided
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Significant differences of opinion exist among experts on the long-term trajectory of the UK property market.

In the last year, UK home sales have fallen by more than half (53 per cent), reports the International Herald Tribune's UK retail estate blog.

According to Morgan Stanley chief UK economist David Miles, UK house prices could fall by up to ten per cent before hitting a bottom in 2009.

Meanwhile, Knight Frank forecasts a 30 per cent drop from last year's peaks, but claims that 2007 prices may not return until at least 2010.

Blog author Kevin Brass sums up the vagueness of the financial analysis industry's forecasts, writing: "The market will drop somewhere between five and 40 percent in the next 18 months and return to 2007 levels sometime between 2010 and 2023."

In some positive news for homeowners, figures released by Rightmove yesterday (October 22nd) show that house prices have increased by one per cent this month.

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